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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still