🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.